Flipped from RepublicanCalledUnofficial resultsIncumbent defeated
Florida House District 51
Florida House of Representatives · Florida
Octavio E. Hernandez flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 4.3 points over Hilary Holley.
Octavio E. HernandezDemocrat · winner
52.2%36,309
Hilary HolleyRepublican · incumbent
47.8%33,288
69,597 votes
Source: Florida Department of State, Division of Elections unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two campaigns on one scale.
Octavio E. HernandezHilary Holley
$4.8K
Raised by the campaign
$135.2K
$3.5K
Spent by the campaign
$37.6K
$1.3K
Cash on hand
$97.6K
Campaign money: Florida Division of Elections, through Oct 28, 2026; Florida Division of Elections, through Oct 29, 2026.
Source: Florida Division of Elections campaign filingsUpdated Oct 28, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Octavio E. Hernandez
- 19%
- Hilary Holley
- 81%
- Projected margin
- R+6.5