Flipped from RepublicanCalledUnofficial resultsIncumbent defeated
Arizona Legislative District 16
Arizona State Senate · Arizona
Elaine Aldrete flipped the seat for Democrats, winning by 2.5 points over T.J. Shope.
Elaine AldreteDemocrat · winner
51.2%41,069
T.J. ShopeRepublican · incumbent
48.7%39,027
Unofficial Write-inOther party
0.1%100
Unassigned Write-inOther party
0.0%16
80,212 votes
Source: Arizona Secretary of State unofficial resultsUpdated Nov 7, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
Where the race moved
Against the 2024 presidential vote
The seat's recent races
Source: Past results: 99chambers results archive (MEDSL, Klarner, state election offices)
Money in this race
Each line compares the two campaigns on one scale.
Elaine AldreteT.J. Shope
$16.6K
Raised by the campaign
$283.7K
$5.4K
Spent by the campaign
$101.2K
$8K
Cash on hand
$182.6K
Campaign money: Arizona Secretary of State, through Sep 30, 2026.
Source: Arizona Secretary of State campaign filingsUpdated Sep 30, 2026
Pre-election forecast (final, Nov 3)
Our model's last run before Election Day, Nov 3, 2026. It no longer updates.
- Elaine Aldrete
- 8%
- T.J. Shope
- 92%
- Projected margin
- R+12.0
The candidates
Elaine Aldrete (D)T.J. Shope (R)
Incumbent, Arizona State Senate, first elected 2020
Incumbent, Arizona State Senate, first elected 2020
Also on the ballot: Unofficial Write-in (Other party), 0.1%; Unassigned Write-in (Other party), 0.0%