Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms, with one two-year term after each redistricting, so about half the seats are on the ballot each election.
Texas › Texas State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas State Senate District 11
Paul is clearly favored to win: Paul wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Dicely (D)
6%
chance of winning
Paul (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+11.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Paul is clearly favored to win: Paul wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Dicely (D)
7%
chance of winning
Paul (R)
93%
- Average margin
- R+14.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Shannon Dicely
Republican
Dennis Paul
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Texas state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+20: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 936,878
- People per km²
- 316
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 30%of adults
- White 45%
- Hispanic 31%
- Black 13%
- Asian 7%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
395,773 two-party votes · R+20.7 · R+19.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.3%
Kamala Harris (D)39.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
389,012 votes · R+21.9✓ Larry Taylor (R)59.5%
Susan Criss (D)38.1%
Jared Wissel (—)2.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
464,543 two-party votes · R+18.7 · R+23.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.4%
Joe Biden (D)40.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
218,201 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Larry Taylor (R)100.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
361,785 two-party votes · R+24.1 · R+26.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.9%
2012 Earlier district lines
274,333 votes · R+32.0✓ Larry Taylor (R)66.0%
Jacqueline Acquistapace (D)34.0%