Democratic
Texas › Texas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas House District 34
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (74%).
Saenz is favored to win: Saenz wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Saenz (D)
74%
chance of winning
Villalobos (R)
26%
- Average margin
- D+5.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (87%).
Saenz is clearly favored to win: Saenz wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Saenz (D)
87%
chance of winning
Villalobos (R)
13%
- Average margin
- D+11.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Denise Villalobos
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Texas state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.26 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -9.65 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -9.65 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 185,965
- People per km²
- 110
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 14%
- White, no degree
- 17%of adults
- White 19%
- Hispanic 75%
- Black 4%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 1%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
51,566 votes · R+10.7✓ Villalobos (R)55.4%
Ortiz (D)44.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
53,142 two-party votes · R+1.4 · D+0.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.7%
Kamala Harris (D)49.3%
2022
38,564 votes · D+15.3✓ Abel Herrero (D)57.6%
Carolyn Vaughn (R)42.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
55,004 votes · D+19.0✓ Abel Herrero (D)59.5%
James Hernandez (R)40.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
58,398 two-party votes · D+10.2 · D+5.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.1%
Donald Trump (R)44.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
48,483 two-party votes · D+17.3 · D+15.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)58.7%
Donald Trump (R)41.3%