DemocraticIncumbent
Mihaela Plesa
- Experience
- State legislature
Texas › Texas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas House District 70
Plesa is very likely to win: Plesa wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Plesa (D)
98%
chance of winning
Flint (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+16.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+7 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Plesa is clearly favored to win: Plesa wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Plesa (D)
90%
chance of winning
Flint (R)
10%
- Average margin
- D+13.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+1 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
George Flint
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Texas state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.65 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.2 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.2 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 197,107
- People per km²
- 2,080
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 61%
- White, no degree
- 19%of adults
- White 45%
- Hispanic 16%
- Black 11%
- Asian 24%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
73,116 votes · D+4.4✓ Plesa (D)52.2%
Kinard (R)47.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
74,299 two-party votes · D+5.9 · D+7.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.9%
Donald Trump (R)47.1%
2022
58,461 votes · D+1.5✓ Mihaela Elizabeth Plesa (D)50.7%
Jamee Jolly (R)49.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
124,097 votes · R+23.7✓ Scott Sanford (R)61.9%
Angie Bado (D)38.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
116,754 two-party votes · D+9.6 · D+5.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.8%
Donald Trump (R)45.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
89,207 two-party votes · R+2.7 · R+4.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.7%
Also on the ballot in Texas
Neighboring districts
HD-33Orlando LopezKatrina Pierson99%Rep.96%Rep. HD-61Brittany BlackKeresa Richardson90%Rep.76%Rep. HD-65Detrick BeburrMitch Little91%Rep.82%Rep. HD-66Sandeep SrivastavaMatt Shaheen88%Rep.75%Rep. HD-67Jordan WheatleyJeff Leach90%Rep.76%Rep. HD-89Angie CarrawayCandy Noble93%Rep.84%Rep. HD-112Zach HerbertAngie Chen ButtonFlip riskD flip53%Dem.67%Dem. HD-115Cassandra HernandezDanny Rosellini>99%Dem.97%Dem.