DemocraticIncumbent
Oscar Longoria
- Experience
- State legislature
Texas › Texas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas House District 35
Longoria is very likely to win: Longoria wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Longoria (D)
98%
chance of winning
Rosa (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+21.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+9 to D+34
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Longoria is clearly favored to win: Longoria wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Longoria (D)
85%
chance of winning
Rosa (R)
15%
- Average margin
- D+11.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Oscar Rosa
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Texas state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.68 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 40 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 187,145
- People per km²
- 64
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 13%
- White, no degree
- 3%of adults
- White 4%
- Hispanic 96%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
25,896 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Longoria (D)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
37,120 two-party votes · R+6.9 · R+5.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.5%
Kamala Harris (D)46.5%
2022
24,259 votes · D+28.4✓ Oscar Longoria (D)64.2%
Oscar Rosa (R)35.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
31,195 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Oscar Longoria (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
46,406 two-party votes · D+15.3 · D+10.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)57.7%
Donald Trump (R)42.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
31,915 two-party votes · D+47.4 · D+45.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)73.7%
Donald Trump (R)26.3%
Also on the ballot in Texas
Neighboring districts
HD-31Jennifer "JJ" DominguezRyan Guillen>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-36Sergio Muñoz—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-37Oziel "Ozzie" Ochoa, Jr.Janie LopezFlip riskD flip54%Rep.61%Dem. HD-38Erin GamezLaura E. Cisneros99%Dem.95%Dem. HD-39Armando Martinez—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-40Terry CanalesCeleste Cabrera-Huff99%Dem.95%Dem. HD-41Julio SalinasGary Groves87%Dem.91%Dem.