DemocraticIncumbent
Richard Raymond
- Experience
- State legislature
Texas › Texas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas House District 42
Raymond is very likely to win: Raymond wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Raymond (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Johnson-Hernandez (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+28.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+16 to D+42
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Raymond is clearly favored to win: Raymond wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Raymond (D)
94%
chance of winning
Johnson-Hernandez (R)
6%
- Average margin
- D+17.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+32
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Teresa Johnson-Hernandez
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Texas state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 4.32 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 40 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 179,145
- People per km²
- 147
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 3%of adults
- White 4%
- Hispanic 94%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 1%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
38,622 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Raymond (D)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
49,760 two-party votes · R+0.5 · D+1.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.2%
Kamala Harris (D)49.8%
2022
33,784 votes · D+42.5✓ Richard Pena Raymond (D)71.2%
Bren (R)28.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
35,727 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Richard Pena Raymond (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
57,873 two-party votes · D+23.0 · D+18.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)61.5%
Donald Trump (R)38.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
47,024 two-party votes · D+50.0 · D+47.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)75.0%
Donald Trump (R)25.0%