DemocraticIncumbent
Eddie Morales
- Experience
- State legislature
Texas › Texas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas House District 74
Morales is clearly favored to win: Morales wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Morales (D)
83%
chance of winning
Garza (R)
17%
- Average margin
- D+8.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Democratic-held seat, a toss-up (46% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Morales (D)
54%
chance of winning
Garza (R)
46%
- Average margin
- D+0.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Robert Garza
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Texas state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.98 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 15.88 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 15.88 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+10: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 207,266
- People per km²
- 3
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 21%
- White, no degree
- 10%of adults
- White 14%
- Hispanic 81%
- Black 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 2%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
54,564 votes · D+3.4✓ Morales (D)51.7%
Garza (R)48.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
57,912 two-party votes · R+14.8 · R+13.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.4%
Kamala Harris (D)42.6%
2022
37,895 votes · D+11.4✓ Eddie Morales (D)55.7%
Katherine Parker (R)44.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
49,069 votes · D+9.0✓ Eddie Morales (D)54.5%
Ruben Falcon (R)45.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
62,603 two-party votes · D+4.6 · D+0.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.3%
Donald Trump (R)47.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
53,664 two-party votes · D+29.5 · D+27.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)64.8%
Donald Trump (R)35.2%