Democratic
Sarah Eckhardt
State senator from the 14th district (2020–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
Texas › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas Treasurer
Huffines is favored to win: Huffines wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Eckhardt (D)
27%
chance of winning
Huffines (R)
73%
- Average margin
- R+4.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (45% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Eckhardt (D)
45%
chance of winning
Huffines (R)
55%
- Average margin
- R+1.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Don Huffines
Former state senator from the 16th district (2015–2019) and candidate for governor in 2022
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Texas state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The state
Lean R+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 30,188,424
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 25%of adults
- White 39%
- Hispanic 40%
- Black 12%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
11,228,847 two-party votes · R+13.9 · R+12.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.9%
Kamala Harris (D)43.1%
2020 President Vote in this state
11,149,473 two-party votes · R+5.7 · R+10.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.8%
Joe Biden (D)47.2%
2016 President Vote in this state
8,562,915 two-party votes · R+9.4 · R+11.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.3%