Democratic
Texas › Texas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas House District 118
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (86%).
Carranza is clearly favored to win: Carranza wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Carranza (D)
86%
chance of winning
Borrego (R)
14%
- Average margin
- D+8.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (68%).
Carranza is favored to win: Carranza wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Carranza (D)
68%
chance of winning
Borrego (R)
32%
- Average margin
- D+4.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jorge Borrego
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Texas state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.5 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.16 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 243,776
- People per km²
- 195
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 19%of adults
- White 25%
- Hispanic 62%
- Black 7%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
75,870 votes · R+3.5✓ Lujan (R)51.7%
Carranza (D)48.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
79,064 two-party votes · R+4.7 · R+3.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.4%
Kamala Harris (D)47.6%
2022
50,845 votes · R+3.7✓ John Lujan (R)51.8%
Frank Ramirez (D)48.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
58,558 votes · D+17.4✓ Leo Pacheco (D)56.7%
Adam Salyer (R)39.9%
Eric Jason Velasquez (—)3.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
84,751 two-party votes · D+6.0 · D+1.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.0%
Donald Trump (R)47.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
81,617 two-party votes · D+1.0 · R+1.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)50.5%
Donald Trump (R)49.5%
Also on the ballot in Texas
Neighboring districts
HD-31Jennifer "JJ" DominguezRyan Guillen>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-44Eric NormanAlan Schoolcraft>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-53Kathryn HartmannWes Virdell>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-73Merrie FoxCarrie Isaac>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-80Cecilia CastellanoDon McLaughlin89%Rep.76%Rep. HD-117Philip CortezBen Mostyn>99%Dem.98%Dem. HD-119Elizabeth CamposMelva Perez>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-121Zach DunnMarc LaHoodFlip riskD flip53%Rep.61%Dem.