Democratic
Texas › Texas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas House District 61
Richardson is clearly favored to win: Richardson wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Black (D)
10%
chance of winning
Richardson (R)
90%
- Average margin
- R+10.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to Even
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Richardson is favored to win: Richardson wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Black (D)
24%
chance of winning
Richardson (R)
76%
- Average margin
- R+7.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Texas state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.56 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.2 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -3.2 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+14: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 206,679
- People per km²
- 600
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 61%
- White, no degree
- 21%of adults
- White 48%
- Hispanic 14%
- Black 11%
- Asian 22%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
98,145 votes · R+19.2✓ Richardson (R)59.6%
Adams (D)40.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
101,533 two-party votes · R+15.2 · R+13.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.6%
Kamala Harris (D)42.4%
2022
68,782 votes · R+16.5✓ Frederick Frazier (R)58.3%
Sheena King (D)41.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
105,515 votes · R+70.8✓ Phil King (R)83.0%
Christopher Cox (D)14.2%
J K Stephenson (—)2.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
95,316 two-party votes · R+8.4 · R+12.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.2%
Joe Biden (D)45.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
75,675 two-party votes · R+23.5 · R+25.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.3%