DemocraticIncumbent
Maine › Maine State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine State Senate District 8
Tipping is clearly favored to win: Tipping wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Tipping (D)
82%
chance of winning
Kenney (R)
18%
- Average margin
- D+6.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Democratic-held seat, a toss-up (43% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Tipping (D)
57%
chance of winning
Kenney (R)
43%
- Average margin
- D+1.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Leo C Kenney
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.07 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.56 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.56 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 35,721
- People per km²
- 13
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 60%of adults
- White 89%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
20,196 votes · D+0.2✓ Michael Tipping (D)50.1%
Leo C Kenney (R)49.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
20,525 two-party votes · R+2.1 · R+0.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.1%
Kamala Harris (D)48.9%
2022
15,681 votes · D+5.5✓ Michael Tipping (D)52.8%
Eric Rojo (R)47.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
22,676 votes · R+22.3✓ Kimberley C Rosen (R)57.8%
Beverly B Uhlenhake (D)36.7%
Teresa Montague (—)5.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
19,895 two-party votes · D+3.3 · R+1.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.6%
Donald Trump (R)48.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
18,352 two-party votes · D+0.3 · R+1.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)50.2%
Donald Trump (R)49.8%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.