Democratic
Maine › Maine State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine State Senate District 10
Haggan is clearly favored to win: Haggan wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
O'Connell (D)
11%
chance of winning
Haggan (R)
89%
- Average margin
- R+8.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Haggan is favored to win: Haggan wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
O'Connell (D)
20%
chance of winning
Haggan (R)
80%
- Average margin
- R+7.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
David G Haggan
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.45 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.61 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.61 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+10: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 44,620
- People per km²
- 41
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 62%of adults
- White 91%
- Hispanic 2%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
24,632 votes · R+14.1✓ David G Haggan (R)57.1%
Michele Labree Daniels (D)42.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
25,147 two-party votes · R+10.1 · R+8.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.1%
Kamala Harris (D)44.9%
2022
20,501 votes · R+12.3✓ Peter A Lyford (R)56.2%
Ralph E Cammack Jr (D)43.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
20,786 votes · R+39.6✓ Stacey K Guerin (R)69.8%
Frederick Harold Austin (D)30.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
24,379 two-party votes · R+9.5 · R+14.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.8%
Joe Biden (D)45.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
21,456 two-party votes · R+15.0 · R+17.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.5%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
SD-3Stanley Byron Short Jr.Joel R Stetkis>99%Rep.99%Rep. SD-4Lisa G KalpChad Richard Perkins>99%Rep.99%Rep. SD-6—Billy Bob Faulkingham>99%Rep.>99%Rep. SD-7Nicole C GrohoskiCheryl A Hewes>99%Dem.98%Dem. SD-8Michael TippingLeo C KenneyFlip risk82%Dem.57%Dem. SD-9Amy J Roeder—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-11Glenn Chip CurryRyan C Otis92%Dem.71%Dem.