DemocraticIncumbent
Maine › Maine State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine State Senate District 11
Curry is clearly favored to win: Curry wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Curry (D)
92%
chance of winning
Otis (R)
8%
- Average margin
- D+11.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+2 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Curry is favored to win: Curry wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Curry (D)
71%
chance of winning
Otis (R)
29%
- Average margin
- D+5.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Ryan C Otis
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.61 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 10.31 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 10.31 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 40,192
- People per km²
- 18
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 62%of adults
- White 93%
- Hispanic 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
24,355 votes · D+11.7✓ Glenn Chip Curry (D)55.8%
Robert Charles Meyer (R)44.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
24,476 two-party votes · D+3.5 · D+5.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.7%
Donald Trump (R)48.3%
2022
20,786 votes · D+10.4✓ Glenn Curry (D)55.2%
Maryanne Kinney (R)44.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
23,615 votes · D+8.3✓ Glenn Chip Curry (D)54.2%
Duncan Scott Milne (R)45.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
23,746 two-party votes · D+5.4 · D+0.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.7%
Donald Trump (R)47.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
20,968 two-party votes · D+0.7 · R+1.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)50.3%
Donald Trump (R)49.7%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
SD-3Stanley Byron Short Jr.Joel R Stetkis>99%Rep.99%Rep. SD-7Nicole C GrohoskiCheryl A Hewes>99%Dem.98%Dem. SD-10Kevin J.M. O'ConnellDavid G Haggan89%Rep.80%Rep. SD-12Ann H Matlack—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-13Cameron Reny—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-15Amanda Ann HeathKati McCormickD flipFlip risk65%Dem.51%Dem. SD-16Patric Aaron MooreScott Wynn CyrwayD flipD flip62%Dem.75%Dem.