Democratic
Maine › Maine State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine State Senate District 1
Daigle is very likely to win: Daigle wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
McLaughlin (D)
2%
chance of winning
Daigle (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+16.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+7
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Daigle is clearly favored to win: Daigle wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
McLaughlin (D)
8%
chance of winning
Daigle (R)
92%
- Average margin
- R+14.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Lucien J.B. Daigle
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.01 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -11.58 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+18: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 38,277
- People per km²
- 3
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 25%
- White, no degree
- 72%of adults
- White 93%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
19,948 votes · R+32.3✓ Susan Y Bernard (R)66.2%
Vaughn James McLaughlin (D)33.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
20,194 two-party votes · R+20.3 · R+18.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.2%
Kamala Harris (D)39.8%
2022
16,741 votes · D+4.8✓ Mark W Lawrence (D)52.4%
Susan Y Bernard (R)47.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
18,422 votes · D+18.7✓ Troy Dale Jackson (D)59.4%
Brian Vincent Schaefer (R)40.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
20,231 two-party votes · R+11.7 · R+16.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.9%
Joe Biden (D)44.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
19,055 two-party votes · R+8.4 · R+10.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.8%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.