Democratic
Maine › Maine State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine State Senate District 15
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (65%).
Heath is favored to win: Heath wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Heath (D)
65%
chance of winning
McCormick (R)
35%
- Average margin
- D+2.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (51% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Heath (D)
51%
chance of winning
McCormick (R)
49%
- Average margin
- D+0.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Kati McCormick
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.61 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.02 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 39,803
- People per km²
- 50
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 62%of adults
- White 90%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
21,333 votes · R+1.2✓ Richard T Bradstreet (R)50.6%
Raegan French Larochelle (D)49.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
21,427 two-party votes · R+3.4 · R+1.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.7%
Kamala Harris (D)48.3%
2022
17,675 votes · R+15.8✓ Matthew Gary Pouliot (R)57.9%
Storme Jude St Valle (D)42.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
21,206 votes · R+14.8✓ Matthew Gary Pouliot (R)57.4%
Kalie A Hess (D)42.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
20,676 two-party votes · R+0.4 · R+5.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.2%
Joe Biden (D)49.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
17,969 two-party votes · R+5.2 · R+7.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.4%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
SD-5Robert F SullebargerElizabeth M Caruso98%Rep.94%Rep. SD-11Glenn Chip CurryRyan C Otis92%Dem.71%Dem. SD-13Cameron Reny—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-14Craig V HickmanSteven A McGee86%Dem.64%Dem. SD-16Patric Aaron MooreScott Wynn CyrwayD flipD flip62%Dem.75%Dem. SD-17Jo-Jean C KellerRichard G Mason98%Rep.96%Rep.