Democratic
Maine › Maine State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine State Senate District 22
Pomerleau is very likely to win: Pomerleau wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Burnett (D)
4%
chance of winning
Pomerleau (R)
96%
- Average margin
- R+13.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+23 to R+4
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Pomerleau is clearly favored to win: Pomerleau wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Burnett (D)
9%
chance of winning
Pomerleau (R)
91%
- Average margin
- R+12.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Kimberly J Pomerleau
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.24 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -8.94 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 35,870
- People per km²
- 25
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 27%
- White, no degree
- 65%of adults
- White 89%
- Hispanic 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 9%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
23,230 votes · R+27.5✓ James D Libby (R)63.7%
Anne Marie McMahon (D)36.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
23,962 two-party votes · R+17.0 · R+15.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.5%
Kamala Harris (D)41.5%
2022
18,767 votes · R+20.7✓ James D Libby (R)60.3%
Michael A McKinney (D)39.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
21,880 votes · R+21.3✓ Jeffrey L Timberlake (R)60.6%
Martha M S Poliquin (D)39.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
22,601 two-party votes · R+13.0 · R+17.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.5%
Joe Biden (D)43.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
19,128 two-party votes · R+19.4 · R+21.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.3%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
SD-18Elizabeth D BosworthJohn E AndrewsR flipR flip79%Rep.74%Rep. SD-26Timothy E NangleKenneth James Cianchette99%Dem.93%Dem. SD-30Sophia Bailey WarrenHarry J White>99%Dem.99%Dem. SD-31Donna BaileyGarrett Plummer99%Dem.97%Dem. SD-32Henry L Ingwersen—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-33Mark H VigliottaMatthew A Harrington84%Rep.74%Rep.