Democratic
Maine › Maine State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine State Senate District 20
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (58% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Scott (D)
58%
chance of winning
Bickford (R)
42%
- Average margin
- D+1.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (70%).
Scott is favored to win: Scott wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Scott (D)
70%
chance of winning
Bickford (R)
30%
- Average margin
- D+4.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Bruce A Bickford
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.07 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.89 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -3.89 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 42,280
- People per km²
- 82
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 29%
- White, no degree
- 66%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
22,163 votes · R+4.9✓ Bruce Bickford (R)50.3%
Bettyann W Sheats (D)45.6%
Dustin R Ward (—)4.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
22,149 two-party votes · D+0.9 · D+2.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.5%
Donald Trump (R)49.5%
2022
17,944 votes · R+0.9✓ Eric L Brakey (R)50.5%
Bettyann W Sheats (D)49.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
22,245 votes · D+6.8✓ Ned Claxton (D)53.4%
Matthew Joseph Leonard (R)46.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
21,623 two-party votes · D+3.5 · R+1.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.8%
Donald Trump (R)48.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
19,002 two-party votes · R+4.7 · R+7.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.6%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
Neighboring districts
SD-17Jo-Jean C KellerRichard G Mason98%Rep.96%Rep. SD-18Elizabeth D BosworthJohn E AndrewsR flipR flip79%Rep.74%Rep. SD-21Shanna Cox—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-23Matthea Elisabeth DaughtryBernard Porter>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-24Denise Tepler—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-25Teresa S Pierce—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. SD-26Timothy E NangleKenneth James Cianchette99%Dem.93%Dem.