DemocraticIncumbent
Maine › Maine State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine State Senate District 14
Hickman is clearly favored to win: Hickman wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Hickman (D)
86%
chance of winning
McGee (R)
14%
- Average margin
- D+7.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Hickman is favored to win: Hickman wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Hickman (D)
64%
chance of winning
McGee (R)
36%
- Average margin
- D+3.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Steven A McGee
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.92 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 6.75 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 6.75 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 38,347
- People per km²
- 54
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 60%of adults
- White 93%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
24,096 votes · D+4.9✓ Craig V Hickman (D)52.5%
Shannon McDonnell (R)47.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
24,018 two-party votes · D+0.2 · D+1.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.1%
Donald Trump (R)49.9%
2022
20,835 votes · D+4.7✓ Craig V Hickman (D)52.3%
Jeffery P Hanley (R)47.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
23,187 votes · D+12.1✓ Shenna Bellows (D)56.1%
Mark L Walker (R)43.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
23,616 two-party votes · D+2.4 · R+2.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.2%
Donald Trump (R)48.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
20,872 two-party votes · R+2.0 · R+4.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.0%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.