Democratic
Maine › Maine State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine State Senate District 33
Harrington is clearly favored to win: Harrington wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Vigliotta (D)
16%
chance of winning
Harrington (R)
84%
- Average margin
- R+7.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+2
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Harrington is favored to win: Harrington wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Vigliotta (D)
26%
chance of winning
Harrington (R)
74%
- Average margin
- R+5.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to D+7
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Matthew A Harrington
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.29 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -9.88 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -9.88 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 40,056
- People per km²
- 82
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 69%of adults
- White 90%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
20,434 votes · R+21.5✓ Matthew A Harrington (R)60.8%
Daniel J Lauzon (D)39.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
21,018 two-party votes · R+10.1 · R+8.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.0%
Kamala Harris (D)45.0%
2022
15,722 votes · R+8.2✓ Matthew A Harrington (R)54.1%
Kendra A Williams (D)45.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
21,355 votes · R+25.6✓ David C Woodsome (R)62.8%
Michael A McKinney (D)37.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
20,374 two-party votes · R+6.1 · R+10.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.0%
Joe Biden (D)47.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
17,418 two-party votes · R+12.3 · R+14.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)43.8%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.