Democratic
Maine › Maine State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine State Senate District 16
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (62%).
Moore is favored to win: Moore wins in about 3 of every 5 simulations.
Moore (D)
62%
chance of winning
Cyrway (R)
38%
- Average margin
- D+2.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (75%).
Moore is favored to win: Moore wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Moore (D)
75%
chance of winning
Cyrway (R)
25%
- Average margin
- D+6.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Scott Wynn Cyrway
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Maine state offices
- +0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.26 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -8.46 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -8.46 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 40,168
- People per km²
- 89
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 69%of adults
- White 91%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
19,993 votes · R+7.9✓ Scott Wynn Cyrway (R)53.9%
Nathaniel J White (D)46.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
20,059 two-party votes · D+1.9 · D+3.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.0%
Donald Trump (R)49.0%
2022
16,334 votes · D+1.9✓ David P Lafountain (D)50.9%
Michael D Perkins (R)49.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
20,376 votes · R+12.4✓ Scott Wynn Cyrway (R)56.2%
Hilary D Koch (D)43.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
20,070 two-party votes · D+6.9 · D+2.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.5%
Donald Trump (R)46.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
17,591 two-party votes · D+2.6 · D+0.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.3%
Donald Trump (R)48.7%
Also on the ballot in Maine
- RCV ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.