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Florida · Florida House District 106 · Updated Oct 29, 2026

2026 nominee

Lucia Baez-Geller

Democratic nominee for Florida House District 106 against Republican Fabian Basabe on November 3, 2026.

Democratic

Baez-Geller’s chance of winning

55%

Fabian Basabe (R)

45%

Baez-Geller50%Basabe

Rating
Toss-up
Projected margin
D+1.0
Since Sep 1
+55 pts from <1%
Past week
+55 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 22Sep 29Oct 6Oct 13Oct 20Oct 27Nov 3Baez-Geller 55%Basabe 45%

Updated nightly. Each day is the forecast as it ran that day (how).

Baez-Geller’s chance of winning

53%

Fabian Basabe (R)

47%

Baez-Geller50%Basabe

Rating
Toss-up
Projected margin
D+0.7
Since Sep 1
+53 pts from <1%
Past week
+53 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 22Sep 29Oct 6Oct 13Oct 20Oct 27Nov 3Baez-Geller 53%Basabe 47%

Updated nightly. Each day is the forecast as it ran that day (how).

99chambers forecast, updated Oct 29, 2026. No public polls of this race.

Full race forecast

Profile · Updated Oct 29, 2026

Lucia Baez-Geller is the Democratic nominee for Florida House District 106. Baez-Geller faces Republican Fabian Basabe on November 3, 2026.

The Florida official candidate list gives Baez-Geller's city as Surfside.

01

Head to head

Florida House District 106: the two nominees side by side.

LB
Lucia Baez-GellerDemocratic
vs.
FB
Fabian BasabeRepublican · incumbent
Forecast
55%
Chance of winning
45%
53%
Chance of winning
47%
Money
$389.1K
Raised
$253.7K
$106.1K
From individuals
$27.4K
$356.3K
Spent
$102K
$32.7K
Cash on hand
$151.7K
Record
No elected office
Elected experience
Incumbent

Forecast: 99chambers, updated Oct 29, 2026. Money: Florida Division of Elections, Baez-Geller through Oct 16, 2026, Basabe through Oct 14, 2026.

Fabian Basabe’s page

What the forecast is built from

District lean
R+4.2

The district’s partisan lean from past results.

Fundamentals
D+1.6

Incumbency, money, experience and past results.

Similar seats
D+0.7

Results in districts like this one.

Polls
None

No public polls of this race, so the forecast rests on the other inputs.

Model inputs for this race
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)-1.00
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)+1.20
Elected-experience edge-0.67
First-term incumbent0.00
Seat's last result vs. expectation+2.50
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation+2.50

Margins: D+ favours the Democrat, R+ the Republican. How it works.

02

The district and the money

Past results, campaign money and links.

Past results in this district

YearRaceCandidatesMarginVote share
2024GeneralFabián Basabe (R) 51.3% · Joe Saunders (D) 47.0%R+4.3
2024PresidentDonald Trump (R) 54.5% · Kamala Harris (D) 45.5%R+9.1
2022GeneralFabian Basabe (R) 50.2% · Jordan W Leonard (D) 49.8%R+0.5
2020Generalold linesBob Rommel (R) 65.9% · Sara McFadden (D) 34.1%R+31.9
2020PresidentJoe Biden (D) 55.2% · Donald Trump (R) 44.8%D+10.4
2016PresidentHillary Clinton (D) 64.5% · Donald Trump (R) 35.5%D+28.9

Newest first; “old lines” marks a race run on different district boundaries. Sources: MEDSL, Klarner and official canvasses.

Where Baez-Geller’s money came from

Raised
$389.1K
From individuals
$106.1K (27%)
Cash on hand
$32.7K

Source: Florida Division of Elections, through Oct 16, 2026.