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North Carolina · North Carolina House District 78 · Updated Nov 1, 2026

2026 nominee

Matt Holway

Democratic nominee for North Carolina House District 78 against Republican Neal Jackson on November 3, 2026.

Democratic

Holway’s chance of winning

<1%

Neal Jackson (R)

>99%

Holway50%Jackson

Rating
Solid R
Projected margin
R+41.3
Since Sep 1
0 pts from <1%
Past week
0 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 22Sep 29Oct 6Oct 13Oct 20Oct 27Nov 3Holway <1%Jackson >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the forecast as it ran that day (how).

Holway’s chance of winning

<1%

Neal Jackson (R)

>99%

Holway50%Jackson

Rating
Solid R
Projected margin
R+43.9
Since Sep 1
0 pts from <1%
Past week
0 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 22Sep 29Oct 6Oct 13Oct 20Oct 27Nov 3Holway <1%Jackson >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the forecast as it ran that day (how).

99chambers forecast, updated Nov 1, 2026. No public polls of this race.

Full race forecast

Profile · Updated Nov 1, 2026

Matt Holway is the Democratic nominee for North Carolina House District 78. Holway faces Republican Neal Jackson on November 3, 2026.

The North Carolina official candidate list gives Holway's city as West End.

01

Head to head

North Carolina House District 78: the two nominees side by side.

MH
Matt HolwayDemocratic
vs.
NJ
Neal JacksonRepublican · incumbent
Forecast
<1%
Chance of winning
>99%
<1%
Chance of winning
>99%
Money
$17.9K
Raised
$538.1K
$11K
From individuals
$389.6K
$11K
Spent
$441.8K
$1.3K
Cash on hand
$155.4K
Record
No elected office on file
Elected experience
Incumbent

Forecast: 99chambers, updated Nov 1, 2026. Money: North Carolina State Board of Elections, Holway through Oct 17, 2026, Jackson through Oct 17, 2026.

Neal Jackson’s page

What the forecast is built from

District lean
R+50.1

The district’s partisan lean from past results.

Fundamentals
R+41.9

Incumbency, money, experience and past results.

Similar seats
R+41.0

Results in districts like this one.

Polls
None

No public polls of this race, so the forecast rests on the other inputs.

Model inputs for this race
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)-1.00
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)-3.42
Elected-experience edge-0.67
First-term incumbent0.00
Seat's last result vs. expectation-0.30
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation-0.30

Margins: D+ favours the Democrat, R+ the Republican. How it works.

02

The district and the money

Past results, campaign money and links.

Past results in this district

YearRaceCandidatesMarginVote share
2024GeneralNeal Jackson (R) 76.5% · Lowell Simon (D) 23.5%R+52.9
2024PresidentDonald Trump (R) 75.0% · Kamala Harris (D) 25.0%R+50.0
2022Generalold linesNeal Jackson (R) 76.6% · Erik Davis (D) 23.4%R+53.1
2020Generalold linesAllen Ray McNeill (R) 100.0%Uncontested
2020PresidentDonald Trump (R) 75.2% · Joe Biden (D) 24.8%R+50.3
2016PresidentDonald Trump (R) 76.9% · Hillary Clinton (D) 23.1%R+53.9

Newest first; “old lines” marks a race run on different district boundaries. Sources: MEDSL, Klarner and official canvasses.

Where Holway’s money came from

Raised
$17.9K
From individuals
$11K (61%)
Cash on hand
$1.3K

Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections, through Oct 17, 2026.