Democratic
North Carolina › North Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina House District 52
Moss is very likely to win: Moss wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Parfitt (D)
5%
chance of winning
Moss (R)
95%
- Average margin
- R+12.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to R+4
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Moss is clearly favored to win: Moss wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Parfitt (D)
11%
chance of winning
Moss (R)
89%
- Average margin
- R+11.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Ben Moss
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Carolina state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.39 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.47 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.47 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+18: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 91,412
- People per km²
- 57
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 42%of adults
- White 64%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 21%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
42,301 votes · R+22.1✓ Ben Moss, Jr. (R)61.1%
Jimmy Self (D)38.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
43,535 two-party votes · R+19.1 · R+17.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.5%
Kamala Harris (D)40.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
19,640 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Ben Moss (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
100,049 votes · R+28.8✓ James L Boles Jr (R)64.4%
Lowell Simon (D)35.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
43,005 two-party votes · R+15.2 · R+19.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.6%
Joe Biden (D)42.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
36,491 two-party votes · R+13.8 · R+16.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)43.1%