Democratic
North Carolina › North Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina House District 51
Taylor is very likely to win: Taylor wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
McDuffie (D)
1%
chance of winning
Taylor (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+21.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+32 to R+12
- Partisan lean
- R+25
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Taylor is very likely to win: Taylor wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
McDuffie (D)
3%
chance of winning
Taylor (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+19.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+32 to R+7
- Partisan lean
- R+25
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Charles Taylor
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Carolina state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.58 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.1 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+25: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 87,771
- People per km²
- 69
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 48%of adults
- White 61%
- Hispanic 18%
- Black 15%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
40,168 votes · R+28.6✓ John Sauls (R)64.3%
Ginger Bauerband (D)35.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
41,105 two-party votes · R+26.0 · R+24.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.0%
Kamala Harris (D)37.0%
2022 Earlier district lines
26,120 votes · R+30.0✓ John Sauls (R)65.0%
Malcolm Hall (D)35.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
78,948 votes · R+14.6✓ John Sauls (R)57.3%
Jason Cain (D)42.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
48,816 two-party votes · R+21.9 · R+26.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.9%
Joe Biden (D)39.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
32,368 two-party votes · R+20.2 · R+22.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.9%