99chambers
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Florida · Florida House District 2 · Updated Oct 29, 2026

2026 nominee

Jon Fay

Republican nominee for Florida House District 2 against Democratic Johnny Austin Thompson on November 3, 2026.

Republican

Fay’s chance of winning

96%

Johnny Austin Thompson (D)

4%

Fay50%Thompson

Rating
Solid R
Projected margin
R+13.5
Since Sep 1
+3 pts from 94%
Past week
+4 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 22Sep 29Oct 6Oct 13Oct 20Oct 27Nov 3Thompson 4%Fay 96%

Updated nightly. Each day is the forecast as it ran that day (how).

Fay’s chance of winning

90%

Johnny Austin Thompson (D)

10%

Fay50%Thompson

Rating
Likely R
Projected margin
R+12.6
Since Sep 1
−1 pt from 91%
Past week
0 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 22Sep 29Oct 6Oct 13Oct 20Oct 27Nov 3Thompson 10%Fay 90%

Updated nightly. Each day is the forecast as it ran that day (how).

99chambers forecast, updated Oct 29, 2026. No public polls of this race.

Full race forecast

Profile · Updated Oct 29, 2026

Jon Fay is the Republican nominee for Florida House District 2. Fay faces Democrat Johnny Austin Thompson on November 3, 2026.

The Florida official candidate list gives Fay's city as Gulf Breeze.

01

Head to head

Florida House District 2: the two nominees side by side.

JF
Jon FayRepublican
vs.
JA
Johnny Austin ThompsonDemocratic
Forecast
96%
Chance of winning
4%
90%
Chance of winning
10%
Money
$247.7K
Raised
$25.7K
$100.1K
From individuals
$8.1K
$189.4K
Spent
$0
$58.3K
Cash on hand
$25.7K
Record
No elected office
Elected experience
No elected office on file

Forecast: 99chambers, updated Oct 29, 2026. Money: Florida Division of Elections, Fay through Oct 16, 2026, Thompson through Oct 22, 2026.

Johnny Austin Thompson’s page

What the forecast is built from

District lean
R+18.0

The district’s partisan lean from past results.

Fundamentals
R+13.8

Incumbency, money, experience and past results.

Similar seats
R+13.4

Results in districts like this one.

Polls
None

No public polls of this race, so the forecast rests on the other inputs.

Model inputs for this race
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0.00
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)-2.02
Elected-experience edge0.00
First-term incumbent0.00
Seat's last result vs. expectation-3.44
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0.00

Margins: D+ favours the Democrat, R+ the Republican. How it works.

02

The district and the money

Past results, campaign money and links.

Past results in this district

YearRaceCandidatesMarginVote share
2024GeneralAlex Andrade (R) 57.7% · Haley "Hale" Morrissette (D) 35.3%R+24.0
2024PresidentDonald Trump (R) 59.8% · Kamala Harris (D) 40.2%R+19.6
2022GeneralAlex Andrade (R) 63.6% · Carollyn Rabeca Taylor (D) 36.4%R+27.2
2020Generalold linesAlex Andrade (R) 55.8% · Dianne Krumel (D) 44.2%R+11.7
2020PresidentDonald Trump (R) 56.7% · Joe Biden (D) 43.3%R+13.4
2016PresidentDonald Trump (R) 60.2% · Hillary Clinton (D) 39.8%R+20.4

Newest first; “old lines” marks a race run on different district boundaries. Sources: MEDSL, Klarner and official canvasses.

Where Fay’s money came from

Raised
$247.7K
From individuals
$100.1K (40%)
Cash on hand
$58.3K

Source: Florida Division of Elections, through Oct 16, 2026.