Democratic
Fredrick Love
State senator from SD-15 (2023–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
Arkansas › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arkansas Governor
Sanders is clearly favored to win: Sanders wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Love (D)
9%
chance of winning
Sanders (R)
91%
- Average margin
- R+10.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+31
- Polls
- 1in our database
Sanders is clearly favored to win: Sanders wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Love (D)
9%
chance of winning
Sanders (R)
91%
- Average margin
- R+11.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+23 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+31
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Incumbent governor (2023–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Libertarian
Colt Shelby
Farmer
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Arkansas state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 6.66 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 6.66 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Love | Sanders | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix College for Talk Business & Politics | Aug 11–Aug 12 | 1,217 LV | 40 | 45 | R+5 | R+7.7 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Aug 12, 2026.
The state
Lean R+31: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 3,049,391
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 52%of adults
- White 67%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 15%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
1,156,146 two-party votes · R+31.3 · R+29.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.7%
Kamala Harris (D)34.3%
2022
902,671 votes · R+28.5✓ Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R)63.1%
Chris Jones (D)35.1%
Ricky Dale Harrington Jr (L)1.8%
2020 President Vote in this state
1,184,579 two-party votes · R+28.4 · R+33.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.2%
Joe Biden (D)35.8%
2018
891,509 votes · R+34.6✓ Governor Asa Hutchinson (R)65.3%
Jared K Henderson (D)31.8%
Mark West (L)2.9%
2016 President Vote in this state
1,065,366 two-party votes · R+28.6 · R+30.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)35.7%
2014
822,544 votes · R+14.4✓ Asa Hutchinson (R)57.2%
Mike Ross (D)42.8%
2010
766,120 votes · D+31.4✓ Mike D. Beebe (D)65.7%
Jim Keet (R)34.3%
2006
745,805 votes · D+15.5✓ Mike D. Beebe (D)57.8%
Asa Hutchinson (R)42.2%
2002
805,332 votes · R+6.1✓ Mike Huckabee (R)53.0%
Jimmie Lou Fisher (D)47.0%