Democratic
Kenneth Casner
Candidate for governor in 2002 and 2018
- Experience
- No elected office
Wyoming › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Wyoming Governor
Barlow is very likely to win: Barlow wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Casner (D)
1%
chance of winning
Barlow (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+32.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+49 to R+17
- Partisan lean
- R+47
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Barlow is very likely to win: Barlow wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Casner (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Barlow (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+39.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+56 to R+24
- Partisan lean
- R+47
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Eric Barlow
State senator from the 23rd district (2023–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Wyoming state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -6.75 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The state
Lean R+47: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 582,397
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 57%of adults
- White 81%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
262,160 two-party votes · R+47.0 · R+45.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)73.5%
Kamala Harris (D)26.5%
2022
194,000 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Mark Gordon (R)74.1%
Theresa A Livingston (L)15.8%
Write-In (—)5.9%
Jared J Baldes (L)4.2%
2020 President Vote in this state
267,050 two-party votes · R+45.0 · R+49.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)72.5%
Joe Biden (D)27.5%
2018
203,238 votes · R+41.8✓ Mark Gordon (R)67.1%
Mary A Throne (D)27.5%
Rex "t-Rex" Rammell (OTH)3.3%
Lawrence Gerard Struempf (L)1.5%
Writein (—)0.5%
2016 President Vote in this state
230,392 two-party votes · R+51.4 · R+53.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)75.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)24.3%
2014
167,877 votes · R+37.1✓ Matt Mead (R)59.4%
Pete Gosar (D)27.3%
Don Wills (I)5.9%
Write-in (—)5.1%
Dee Cozzens (L)2.4%
2010
188,463 votes · R+48.2✓ Matt Mead (R)65.7%
Leslie Petersen (D)22.9%
Taylor Haynes (I)7.3%
Mike Wheeler (L)2.8%
Write-in (—)1.2%
2006
193,616 votes · D+40.0✓ Dave Freudenthal (D)70.0%
Ray Hunkins (R)30.0%
2002
181,535 votes · D+2.1✓ Dave Freudenthal (D)51.0%
Eli Bebout (R)49.0%