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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Hawaii › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Hawaii Governor

Green is very likely to win: Green wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.

Green (D)
99%
chance of winning
Cordery (R)
1%
Average margin
D+30.9
80% of outcomes
D+15 to D+47
Partisan lean
D+25
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Green is very likely to win: Green wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.

Green (D)
99%
chance of winning
Cordery (R)
1%
Average margin
D+34.7
80% of outcomes
D+18 to D+51
Partisan lean
D+25
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Range of outcomes

D+30.9R+60R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40D+60
D+34.7R+60R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40D+60

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Green 99%Cordery 1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Green 99%Cordery 1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Hawaii state offices
+0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here
D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodD+34.9Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+31.0Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Hawaii and look-alikeplacesD+30.9Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+31.0Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+34.8

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge1
First-term incumbent1
Seat's last result vs. expectation1.73
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation1.73

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.

The state

Lean D+25: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+34.9D+32.7 vs. nation2020 presidentD+30.1D+25.5 vs. nation2024 presidentD+23.6D+25.1 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
1,445,235
Adults with a B.A.+
36%
White, no degree
12%of adults
  • White 21%
  • Hispanic 10%
  • Black 2%
  • Asian 36%
  • Other / multiracial 31%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

506,705 two-party votes · D+23.6 · D+25.1 vs. the nation
✓ Kamala Harris (D)61.8%
Donald Trump (R)38.2%

2022

413,262 votes · D+26.3
✓ Josh Luke Green (D)63.2%
Duke Tupai Aiona (R)36.8%

2020 President Vote in this state

562,994 two-party votes · D+30.1 · D+25.5 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)65.0%
Donald Trump (R)35.0%

2018

390,843 votes · D+30.1
✓ Ige / Green (D)62.7%
Tupola / Kerns (R)33.7%
Brewer / Ing (OTH)2.6%
Teruya / Robotti (NPA)1.0%

2016 President Vote in this state

395,738 two-party votes · D+34.9 · D+32.7 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)67.4%
Donald Trump (R)32.6%

2014

366,210 votes · D+14.3
✓ David Ige (D)49.5%
Duke Aiona (R)37.1%
Mufi Hannemann (I)11.7%
Jeff Davis (L)1.7%

2010

380,035 votes · D+17.2
✓ Neil Abercrombie (D)58.6%
Duke Aiona (R)41.4%

2006

337,030 votes · R+27.8
✓ Linda Lingle (R)63.9%
Randy Iwase (D)36.1%

2002

376,656 votes · R+4.6
✓ Linda Lingle (R)52.3%
Mazie K. Hirono (D)47.7%