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Florida › Florida House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida House District 73
McFarland is favored to win: McFarland wins in about 3 of every 5 simulations.
Klein (D)
37%
chance of winning
McFarland (R)
63%
- Average margin
- R+2.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (50% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Klein (D)
50%
chance of winning
McFarland (R)
50%
- Average margin
- R+0.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Lisa Klein
RepublicanIncumbent
Fiona McFarland
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Florida state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.48 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.7 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -4.7 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 185,542
- People per km²
- 185
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 46%
- White, no degree
- 43%of adults
- White 80%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 6%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
108,760 votes · R+12.6✓ Fiona McFarland (R)56.3%
Derek Reich (D)43.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
111,346 two-party votes · R+7.2 · R+5.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.6%
Kamala Harris (D)46.4%
2022
92,066 votes · R+12.5✓ Fiona McFarland (R)56.3%
Derek Reich (D)43.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
140,325 votes · R+29.0✓ Tommy Gregory (R)64.5%
David Reeves Fairey (D)35.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
113,209 two-party votes · D+0.3 · R+4.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.2%
Donald Trump (R)49.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
97,971 two-party votes · R+1.7 · R+4.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.1%