Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats (the even-numbered districts in 2026) are on the ballot each election.
Florida › Florida State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida State Senate District 14
Nathan is favored to win: Nathan wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Nathan (D)
74%
chance of winning
Tomkow (R)
26%
- Average margin
- D+4.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Democratic-held seat, a toss-up (47% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Nathan (D)
53%
chance of winning
Tomkow (R)
47%
- Average margin
- D+0.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Unopposed races skip the ballot
A candidate with no opponent is declared elected and the race does not appear on the ballot, so some seats have no vote totals.
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Brian Nathan
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Josie Tomkow
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Florida state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.2 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.89 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 554,340
- People per km²
- 758
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 46%
- White, no degree
- 23%of adults
- White 48%
- Hispanic 35%
- Black 7%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
255,684 two-party votes · R+7.5 · R+6.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.8%
Kamala Harris (D)46.2%
2022
191,989 votes · R+9.1✓ Jay Collins (R)54.6%
Janet Cruz (D)45.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
334,299 two-party votes · D+4.4 · R+0.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.2%
Donald Trump (R)47.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
220,216 votes · R+12.7✓ Tommy A Wright (R)56.3%
Melissa Martin (D)43.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
232,245 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Dorothy L Hukill (R)68.4%
Richard Paul Dembinsky (I)31.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
295,721 two-party votes · D+6.6 · D+4.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)53.3%
Donald Trump (R)46.7%