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Florida › Florida House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida House District 65
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (43% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Braver (D)
43%
chance of winning
Pittman (R)
57%
- Average margin
- R+1.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (62%).
Braver is favored to win: Braver wins in about 3 of every 5 simulations.
Braver (D)
62%
chance of winning
Pittman (R)
38%
- Average margin
- D+3.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Ben Braver
RepublicanIncumbent
Karen Gonzalez Pittman
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Florida state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.5 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -8.42 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -8.42 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 182,801
- People per km²
- 645
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 61%
- White, no degree
- 23%of adults
- White 65%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 5%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
94,022 votes · R+14.5✓ Karen Gonzalez Pittman (R)57.2%
Ashley Brundage (D)42.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
97,226 two-party votes · R+6.4 · R+4.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.2%
Kamala Harris (D)46.8%
2022
72,811 votes · R+7.3✓ Karen Gonzalez Pittman (R)53.6%
Jen McDonald (D)46.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
104,326 votes · R+22.3✓ Chris Sprowls (R)61.1%
Kelly Johnson (D)38.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
111,452 two-party votes · D+5.1 · D+0.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.5%
Donald Trump (R)47.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
97,157 two-party votes · D+4.0 · D+1.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)52.0%
Donald Trump (R)48.0%
Also on the ballot in Florida
Neighboring districts
HD-57Wendy HoyAdam C. Anderson91%Rep.86%Rep. HD-60Lindsay Polega-QuigleyMelissa Rutland95%Dem.91%Dem. HD-62Kyandra Darling—D vs D>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-63Jacqueline Coffie-Leeks—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-64Luis SalazarDan WeldonD flipD flip83%Dem.75%Dem. HD-66Jose A. "Dante" Sanchez SanchezTraci Koster82%Rep.73%Rep.