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Florida › Florida House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida House District 61
Chaney is favored to win: Chaney wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Thach (D)
31%
chance of winning
Chaney (R)
69%
- Average margin
- R+3.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (41% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Thach (D)
41%
chance of winning
Chaney (R)
59%
- Average margin
- R+2.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+10
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
May Thach
RepublicanIncumbent
Linda Chaney
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Florida state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.63 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.51 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.51 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 175,636
- People per km²
- 191
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 49%of adults
- White 77%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 4%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
95,324 votes · R+12.5✓ Linda Chaney (R)56.2%
Nathan Bruemmer (D)43.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
97,697 two-party votes · R+8.5 · R+7.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.3%
Kamala Harris (D)45.7%
2022
82,256 votes · R+11.9✓ Linda Chaney (R)56.0%
Janet Varnell Warwick (D)44.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
146,068 two-party votes · R+3.9 · R+8.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.0%
Joe Biden (D)48.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
44,948 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Dianne Hart (D)97.2%
Writein (—)2.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
91,773 two-party votes · R+6.2 · R+8.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.9%
Also on the ballot in Florida
Neighboring districts
HD-58Bryan BeckmanKimberly Kim Berfield76%Rep.72%Rep. HD-59Susan Rochelle LeffBerny Jacques93%Rep.85%Rep. HD-60Lindsay Polega-QuigleyMelissa Rutland95%Dem.91%Dem. HD-62Kyandra Darling—D vs D>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-70Luther Keith WilkinsMichael Owen92%Rep.82%Rep. HD-71Ocean FittsJordan Varnadore93%Rep.87%Rep.