99chambers
?

Montana · Montana Senate District 8 · Updated Oct 29, 2026

2026 nominee

Tyson T Running Wolf

Serves in the Montana House of Representatives (HD-16). Democratic nominee for Montana Senate District 8 against Republican Christopher Paul Buckles on November 3, 2026.

Democratic

Wolf’s chance of winning

99%

Christopher Paul Buckles (R)

1%

Wolf50%Buckles

Rating
Solid D
Projected margin
D+19.9
Since Sep 1
0 pts from 99%
Past week
0 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 22Sep 29Oct 6Oct 13Oct 20Oct 27Nov 3Wolf 99%Buckles 1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the forecast as it ran that day (how).

Wolf’s chance of winning

95%

Christopher Paul Buckles (R)

5%

Wolf50%Buckles

Rating
Likely D
Projected margin
D+17.3
Since Sep 1
+1 pt from 94%
Past week
0 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 22Sep 29Oct 6Oct 13Oct 20Oct 27Nov 3Wolf 95%Buckles 5%

Updated nightly. Each day is the forecast as it ran that day (how).

99chambers forecast, updated Oct 29, 2026. No public polls of this race.

Full race forecast

Profile · Updated Oct 29, 2026

Tyson T Running Wolf is the Democratic nominee for Montana Senate District 8. Wolf faces Republican Christopher Paul Buckles on November 3, 2026.

The Montana official candidate list gives Wolf's city as Browning.

Our results archive, matched by name, shows Wolf winning the 2024 general election for House of Representatives HD-16 with 59.3% of the vote.

First win on file
2020House of Representatives HD-16
01

Head to head

Montana Senate District 8: the two nominees side by side.

TT
Tyson T Running WolfDemocratic
vs.
CP
Christopher Paul BucklesRepublican
Forecast
99%
Chance of winning
1%
95%
Chance of winning
5%
Money
$1.5K
Raised
$0
$0
From individuals
$0
$1.2K
Spent
$15
Record
No elected office on file
Elected experience
No elected office

Forecast: 99chambers, updated Oct 29, 2026. Money: Montana Commissioner of Political Practices, Wolf through Aug 23, 2026.

Christopher Paul Buckles’s page

What the forecast is built from

District lean
D+12.2

The district’s partisan lean from past results.

Fundamentals
D+19.9

Incumbency, money, experience and past results.

Similar seats
D+19.9

Results in districts like this one.

Polls
None

No public polls of this race, so the forecast rests on the other inputs.

Model inputs for this race
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0.00
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0.00
Elected-experience edge+0.67
First-term incumbent0.00
Seat's last result vs. expectation0.00
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0.00

Margins: D+ favours the Democrat, R+ the Republican. How it works.

02

Career

Races and milestones, newest first.

  1. 2024Nov 5

    Won House of Representatives HD-16

    D59.3%

    2,455 votes

  2. 2022Nov 8

    Won House of Representatives HD-16

    D100.0%

    1,605 votes

  3. 2020Nov 3

    Won House of Representatives HD-16

    D100.0%

    3,237 votes

Past races are matched by name within Montana; name matches can include namesakes, so races are listed only when the first initial matches. Sources: MEDSL, Klarner and official canvasses.

03

The district and the money

Past results, campaign money and links.

Past results in this district

YearRaceCandidatesMarginVote share
2024PresidentKamala Harris (D) 54.7% · Donald Trump (R) 45.3%D+9.5
2022Generalold linesSusan A Webber (D) 57.3% · Rick Jennison (R) 42.7%D+14.5
2020PresidentJoe Biden (D) 60.2% · Donald Trump (R) 39.8%D+20.4
2018Generalold linesSusan A Webber (D) 100.0%Uncontested
2016PresidentHillary Clinton (D) 60.2% · Donald Trump (R) 39.8%D+20.5
2014Generalold linesLea Whitford (D) 67.7% · Liane Johnson (R) 32.3%D+35.4

Newest first; “old lines” marks a race run on different district boundaries. Sources: MEDSL, Klarner and official canvasses.

Where Wolf’s money came from

Raised
$1.5K
From individuals
$0 (0%)

Source: Montana Commissioner of Political Practices, through Aug 23, 2026.