Wyoming › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Hageman is very likely to win: Hageman wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Hageman is very likely to win: Hageman wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Range of outcomes
Former state representative from the 44th district (2009–2019) and nominee for secretary of state in 2018
Money: FEC, through Jul 29, 2026.
U.S. representative from Wyoming's at-large congressional district (2023–present) and candidate for governor in 2018
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.23 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.49 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
Lean R+47: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.