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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

West Virginia › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

U.S. Senate in West Virginia

Capito is very likely to win: Capito wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Anderson (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Capito (R)
>99%
Average margin
R+33.9
80% of outcomes
R+46 to R+22
Partisan lean
R+42
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Capito is very likely to win: Capito wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Anderson (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Capito (R)
>99%
Average margin
R+31.7
80% of outcomes
R+44 to R+20
Partisan lean
R+42
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Range of outcomes

R+33.9R+60R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40D+60
R+31.7R+60R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40D+60

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Anderson <1%Capito >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Anderson <1%Capito >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodR+33.4Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+34.5Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in West Virginia andlook-alike placesR+33.1Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+33.8Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+31.7

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)-1.85
Elected-experience edge-0.67
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation-4.79
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation-4.79

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.

The state

Lean R+42: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+44.3R+46.5 vs. nation2020 presidentR+39.6R+44.1 vs. nation2024 presidentR+42.7R+41.2 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
1,778,373
Adults with a B.A.+
24%
White, no degree
69%of adults
  • White 90%
  • Hispanic 2%
  • Black 3%
  • Asian 1%
  • Other / multiracial 4%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

747,865 two-party votes · R+42.7 · R+41.2 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)71.3%
Kamala Harris (D)28.7%

2020

778,918 votes · R+44.5
✓ Shelley Moore Capito (R)70.3%
Paula Jean Swearengin (D)27.0%
David Moran (L)2.7%

2020 President Vote in this state

781,366 two-party votes · R+39.6 · R+44.1 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)69.8%
Joe Biden (D)30.2%

2016 President Vote in this state

678,165 two-party votes · R+44.3 · R+46.5 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)72.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)27.8%

2014

453,659 votes · R+28.6
✓ Shelley Moore Capito (R)62.1%
Natalie Tennant (D)34.5%
John S. Buckley (L)1.6%
Bob Henry Baber (MTN)1.2%
Phil Hudok (CST)0.6%

2008

702,189 votes · D+27.5
✓ John D. Rockefeller IV (D)63.7%
Jay Wolfe (R)36.3%

2002

436,183 votes · D+26.2
✓ John D. Rockefeller IV (D)63.1%
Jay Wolfe (R)36.9%