DemocraticIncumbent
Chris Coons
Incumbent U.S. senator (2010–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $4.8M
- From individuals
- $2.2M
- Spent
- $2M
- Cash on hand
- $5M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Delaware › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
U.S. Senate in Delaware
Coons is very likely to win: Coons wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Coons (D)
99%
chance of winning
Katz (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+26.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+15 to D+38
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Coons is very likely to win: Coons wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Coons (D)
99%
chance of winning
Katz (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+26.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+14 to D+38
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Michael Katz
Former Democratic state senator (2009–2013) and Independent Party nominee for U.S. Senate in 2024
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $159.4K
- From individuals
- $29.8K
- Spent
- $61K
- Cash on hand
- $98.4K
Money: FEC, through Aug 26, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.56 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 8.03 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 8.03 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The state
Lean D+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 1,021,191
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 58%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 21%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
504,109 two-party votes · D+15.0 · D+16.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)57.5%
Donald Trump (R)42.5%
2020
490,935 votes · D+22.1✓ Christopher A. Coons (D)59.4%
Lauren Witzke (R)37.9%
Mark W. Turley (I)1.6%
Nadine M. Frost (L)1.1%
2020 President Vote in this state
496,871 two-party votes · D+19.3 · D+14.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)59.6%
Donald Trump (R)40.4%
2016 President Vote in this state
420,730 two-party votes · D+12.0 · D+9.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)56.0%
Donald Trump (R)44.0%
2014
234,038 votes · D+13.9✓ Christopher A. Coons (D)55.8%
Kevin Wade (R)42.2%
Andrew Groff (G)1.9%
2010
307,367 votes · D+17.2✓ Christopher A. Coons (D)56.6%
Christine O'Donnell (R)40.0%
Glenn A. Miller (I)2.7%
James W. Rash (L)0.7%
2008
398,134 votes · D+29.4✓ Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D)64.7%
Christine O'Donnell (R)35.3%
2002
232,314 votes · D+17.6✓ Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D)58.2%
Raymond J. Clatworthy (R)40.8%