Cross-party nominations
A candidate can be nominated by several parties, such as Working Families or the Independent Party, and the ballot lists all of them next to one name. The forecast counts the candidate's votes once, under their main party.
Oregon › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
U.S. Senate in Oregon
FusionMerkley is very likely to win: Merkley wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Merkley (D)
98%
chance of winning
Smith (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+22.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+10 to D+34
- Partisan lean
- D+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Merkley is very likely to win: Merkley wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Merkley (D)
97%
chance of winning
Smith (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+18.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+7 to D+31
- Partisan lean
- D+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
How this race is decided
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Jeff Merkley
Incumbent U.S. senator (2009–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $5.2M
- From individuals
- $4.1M
- Spent
- $2.7M
- Cash on hand
- $6.8M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
David Brock Smith
State senator from the 1st district (2023–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $290.7K
- From individuals
- $276.8K
- Spent
- $240.7K
- Cash on hand
- $50K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.5 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.52 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 5.52 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The state
Lean D+15: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 4,254,293
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 71%
- Hispanic 15%
- Black 2%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
2,160,080 two-party votes · D+14.9 · D+16.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)57.4%
Donald Trump (R)42.6%
2020
2,321,249 votes · D+18.3✓ Jeff Merkley (D)56.9%
Jo Rae Perkins (R)39.3%
Gary Dye (L)1.8%
Ibrahim A Taher (G)1.8%
2020 President Vote in this state
2,298,831 two-party votes · D+16.6 · D+12.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)58.3%
Donald Trump (R)41.7%
2016 President Vote in this state
1,784,509 two-party votes · D+12.3 · D+10.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)56.2%
Donald Trump (R)43.8%
2014
1,454,946 votes · D+20.4✓ Jeff Merkley (D)56.0%
Monica Wehby (R)37.0%
Mike Montchalin (L)3.1%
Christina Jean Lugo (G)2.2%
James E. Leuenberger (CST)1.7%
2008
1,762,116 votes · D+3.5✓ Jeff Merkley (D)49.1%
Gordon H. Smith (R)45.7%
David Brownlow (CST)5.3%
2002
1,265,867 votes · R+17.3✓ Gordon Smith (R)56.3%
Bill Bradbury (D)39.6%
Dan Fitzgerald (L)2.4%
Lon Mabon (CST)1.7%