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Missouri · Missouri Senate District 8 · Updated Oct 29, 2026

2026 nominee

Jon Patterson

Serves in the Missouri House of Representatives (HD-30). Republican nominee for Missouri Senate District 8 against Democratic Keri Ingle on November 3, 2026.

Republican

Patterson’s chance of winning

31%

Keri Ingle (D)

69%

Patterson50%Ingle

Rating
Lean D
Projected margin
D+3.4
Since Sep 1
−5 pts from 37%
Past week
0 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 22Sep 29Oct 6Oct 13Oct 20Oct 27Nov 3Ingle 69%Patterson 31%

Updated nightly. Each day is the forecast as it ran that day (how).

Patterson’s chance of winning

43%

Keri Ingle (D)

57%

Patterson50%Ingle

Rating
Toss-up
Projected margin
D+1.5
Since Sep 1
−6 pts from 49%
Past week
−1 pt
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 8Sep 15Sep 22Sep 29Oct 6Oct 13Oct 20Oct 27Nov 3Ingle 57%Patterson 43%

Updated nightly. Each day is the forecast as it ran that day (how).

99chambers forecast, updated Oct 29, 2026. No public polls of this race.

Full race forecast

Profile · Updated Oct 29, 2026

Jon Patterson is the Republican nominee for Missouri Senate District 8. Patterson faces Democrat Keri Ingle on November 3, 2026.

In the legislature, Patterson sits on Capitol Security. Open States lists Patterson as primary sponsor of 5 bills in the 2025–2026 session.

Our results archive, matched by name, shows Patterson winning the 2024 general election for House of Representatives HD-30 with 53.9% of the vote.

First win on file
2018House of Representatives HD-30
Committees
1
Bills sponsored
52025–2026 session
01

Head to head

Missouri Senate District 8: the two nominees side by side.

JP
Jon PattersonRepublican
vs.
KI
Keri IngleDemocratic
Forecast
31%
Chance of winning
69%
43%
Chance of winning
57%
Record
State legislature
Elected experience
State legislature

Forecast: 99chambers, updated Oct 29, 2026.

Keri Ingle’s page

What the forecast is built from

District lean
R+5.9

The district’s partisan lean from past results.

Fundamentals
D+2.7

Incumbency, money, experience and past results.

Similar seats
D+3.9

Results in districts like this one.

Polls
None

No public polls of this race, so the forecast rests on the other inputs.

Model inputs for this race
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0.00
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0.00
Elected-experience edge0.00
First-term incumbent0.00
Seat's last result vs. expectation-3.04
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0.00

Margins: D+ favours the Democrat, R+ the Republican. How it works.

02

Career

Races and milestones, newest first.

  1. 2024Nov 5

    Won House of Representatives HD-30

    R53.9%

    11,830 votes

  2. 2022Nov 8

    Won House of Representatives HD-30

    R54.3%

    8,599 votes

  3. 2020Nov 3

    Won House of Representatives HD-30

    R57.3%

    12,850 votes

  4. 2018Nov 6

    Won House of Representatives HD-30

    R51.7%

    9,162 votes

Past races are matched by name within Missouri; name matches can include namesakes, so races are listed only when the first initial matches. Sources: MEDSL, Klarner and official canvasses.

03

In office

Committee assignments and bills from the 2025–2026 session.

  • Capitol SecurityMember

Bills as primary sponsor

5 as primary sponsor · 4 co-sponsored · the 5 most recent

  • HJR 165

    Proposes a constitutional amendment relating to taxation

    Referred: Emerging Issues(H)

  • HB 2539

    Modifies provisions governing accountability measures for elementary and secondary schools

    Referred: Emerging Issues(H)

  • HJR 174

    Proposes a constitutional amendment relating to taxation

    HCS Reported Do Pass (H) - AYES: 7 NOES: 3 PRESENT: 0

  • HB 746

    Provides protections against discrimination and antisemitism in public schools and public postsecondary educational institutions

    Referred: Emerging Issues(H)

  • HB 1542

    Allows the department of economic development to publish on its website the required annual reports on revenue bond issuances and general obligation bond issuances submitted to the department by municipalities

    Referred: Emerging Issues(H)

Source: Open States, data as of Oct 1, 2026.

04

The district and the money

Past results, campaign money and links.

Past results in this district

YearRaceCandidatesMarginVote share
2024PresidentDonald Trump (R) 52.7% · Kamala Harris (D) 47.3%R+5.5
2022GeneralMike Cierpiot (R) 55.8% · Antoine D Jennings (D) 44.2%R+11.6
2020PresidentDonald Trump (R) 53.5% · Joe Biden (D) 46.5%R+7.0
2018Generalold linesMike Cierpiot (R) 54.7% · Hillary Shields (D) 45.3%R+9.3
2016PresidentDonald Trump (R) 58.8% · Hillary Clinton (D) 41.2%R+17.7
2014Generalold linesWill Kraus (R) 100.0%Uncontested

Newest first; “old lines” marks a race run on different district boundaries. Sources: MEDSL, Klarner and official canvasses.

Links