Democratic
Michigan › Michigan House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan House District 86
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (63%).
McClusky is favored to win: McClusky wins in about 3 of every 5 simulations.
McClusky (D)
63%
chance of winning
DeBoer (R)
37%
- Average margin
- D+2.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (72%).
McClusky is favored to win: McClusky wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
McClusky (D)
72%
chance of winning
DeBoer (R)
28%
- Average margin
- D+5.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Nancy DeBoer
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.31 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -9.35 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -9.35 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean Even: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 92,529
- People per km²
- 445
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 41%of adults
- White 67%
- Hispanic 23%
- Black 2%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
49,396 votes · R+12.2✓ Nancy Deboer (R)56.1%
Abby Klomparens (D)43.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
49,169 two-party votes · R+0.3 · D+1.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.1%
Kamala Harris (D)49.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
39,313 votes · R+12.4✓ Nancy de Boer (R)56.2%
Larry D Jackson (D)43.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
56,286 votes · R+26.3✓ Thomas A Albert (R)63.1%
Sue Hayes (D)36.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
47,537 two-party votes · R+0.3 · R+4.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.2%
Joe Biden (D)49.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
38,542 two-party votes · R+11.3 · R+13.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.4%