Democratic
Michigan › Michigan House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan House District 44
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (68%).
Haadsma is favored to win: Haadsma wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Haadsma (D)
68%
chance of winning
Frisbie (R)
32%
- Average margin
- D+3.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (55% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Haadsma (D)
55%
chance of winning
Frisbie (R)
45%
- Average margin
- D+1.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- R+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Steve Frisbie
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.31 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.51 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 5.51 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 88,135
- People per km²
- 133
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 20%
- White, no degree
- 59%of adults
- White 69%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 13%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
41,711 votes · R+0.2✓ Steve Frisbie (R)50.1%
Jim Haadsma (D)49.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
42,161 two-party votes · R+4.0 · R+2.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.0%
Kamala Harris (D)48.0%
2022 Earlier district lines
30,638 votes · D+4.5✓ Jim Haadsma (D)52.2%
Dave Morgan (R)47.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
59,483 votes · R+19.1✓ Matt Maddock (R)59.5%
Denise Forrest (D)40.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
40,513 two-party votes · R+0.7 · R+5.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.3%
Joe Biden (D)49.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
34,910 two-party votes · R+1.9 · R+4.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.1%