DemocraticIncumbent
Denise Mentzer
- Experience
- State legislature
Michigan › Michigan House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan House District 61
Mentzer is clearly favored to win: Mentzer wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Mentzer (D)
87%
chance of winning
Wojtowicz (R)
13%
- Average margin
- D+8.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Democratic-held seat, a toss-up (49% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Mentzer (D)
51%
chance of winning
Wojtowicz (R)
49%
- Average margin
- D+0.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Robert Wojtowicz
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.44 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 8.04 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 8.04 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 93,972
- People per km²
- 1,350
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 25%
- White, no degree
- 57%of adults
- White 71%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 14%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
50,177 votes · D+1.4✓ Denise Mentzer (D)50.7%
Robert Wojtowicz (R)49.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
51,584 two-party votes · R+5.2 · R+3.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.6%
Kamala Harris (D)47.4%
2022 Earlier district lines
38,685 votes · D+4.1✓ Denise Mentzer (D)52.0%
Mike Aiello (R)48.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
58,976 votes · D+8.1✓ Christine Morse (D)54.1%
Bronwyn Haltom (R)45.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
50,793 two-party votes · R+0.4 · R+5.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.2%
Joe Biden (D)49.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
42,993 two-party votes · R+5.3 · R+7.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.3%