Democratic
Michigan › Michigan House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan House District 109
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (70%).
Rink is favored to win: Rink wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Rink (D)
70%
chance of winning
Bohnak (R)
30%
- Average margin
- D+3.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (68%).
Rink is favored to win: Rink wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Rink (D)
68%
chance of winning
Bohnak (R)
32%
- Average margin
- D+4.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Karl Bohnak
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.83 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.63 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.63 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean Even: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 94,845
- People per km²
- 4
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 60%of adults
- White 89%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 2%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
51,941 votes · R+3.2✓ Karl Bohnak (R)51.6%
Jenn Hill (D)48.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
51,645 two-party votes · R+0.6 · D+0.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.3%
Kamala Harris (D)49.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
41,458 votes · D+6.0✓ Jenn Hill (D)52.8%
Melody Wagner (R)46.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
46,706 votes · D+14.7✓ Sara Cambensy (D)56.6%
Melody Wagner (R)42.1%
Jim Hafeman (—)1.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
49,454 two-party votes · D+1.8 · R+2.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.9%
Donald Trump (R)49.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
41,300 two-party votes · R+4.0 · R+6.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.0%