Democratic
Michigan › Michigan State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan State Senate District 2
Alawieh is very likely to win: Alawieh wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Alawieh (D)
97%
chance of winning
Sawicki (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+15.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+6 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Alawieh is clearly favored to win: Alawieh wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Alawieh (D)
83%
chance of winning
Sawicki (R)
18%
- Average margin
- D+8.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 4.03 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 265,131
- People per km²
- 1,714
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 27%
- White, no degree
- 59%of adults
- White 78%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 9%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
97,804 two-party votes · R+3.6 · R+2.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.8%
Kamala Harris (D)48.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
63,805 votes · D+39.6✓ Sylvia Santana (D)67.8%
Harry T Sawicki (R)29.3%
Larry Darnell Betts (WF)2.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
115,074 two-party votes · D+25.3 · D+20.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)62.7%
Donald Trump (R)37.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
127,036 votes · D+72.8✓ Adam Hollier (D)86.4%
Lisa Papas (R)13.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
96,348 two-party votes · D+20.7 · D+18.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)60.3%
Donald Trump (R)39.7%
2014 Earlier district lines
57,894 votes · D+48.6✓ Bert Johnson (D)71.6%
Mark Price (R)24.8%
Jeffrey Hall (I)3.6%