Democratic
Michigan › Michigan State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan State Senate District 30
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (93%).
Glanville is clearly favored to win: Glanville wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Glanville (D)
93%
chance of winning
Huizenga (R)
7%
- Average margin
- D+10.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+2 to D+20
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (84%).
Glanville is clearly favored to win: Glanville wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Glanville (D)
84%
chance of winning
Huizenga (R)
16%
- Average margin
- D+9.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Mark Huizenga
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.51 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 273,597
- People per km²
- 293
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 45%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 80%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 5%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
156,924 two-party votes · D+4.4 · D+5.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.2%
Donald Trump (R)47.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
129,633 votes · R+0.3✓ Mark Huizenga (R)49.2%
David Lagrand (D)48.9%
Theodore Petzold (L)1.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
150,817 two-party votes · D+3.9 · R+0.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.9%
Donald Trump (R)48.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
125,416 votes · R+29.8✓ Roger Victory (R)63.2%
Jeanette Schipper (D)34.2%
Mary Buzuma (L)2.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
122,213 two-party votes · R+7.9 · R+10.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.1%
2014 Earlier district lines
87,278 votes · R+42.8✓ Arlan Meekhof (R)71.4%
Sarah Howard (D)28.6%