Democratic
Michigan › Michigan House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan House District 54
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (89%).
Pounds is clearly favored to win: Pounds wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Pounds (D)
89%
chance of winning
Gaskey (R)
11%
- Average margin
- D+9.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+1 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (71%).
Pounds is favored to win: Pounds wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Pounds (D)
71%
chance of winning
Gaskey (R)
29%
- Average margin
- D+5.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Roman Gaskey
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.48 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.03 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean Even: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 92,671
- People per km²
- 514
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 61%
- White, no degree
- 29%of adults
- White 71%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 6%
- Asian 10%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
55,107 votes · R+4.8✓ Donni Steele (R)52.4%
Shadia Martini (D)47.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
55,606 two-party votes · R+1.0 · D+0.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.5%
Kamala Harris (D)49.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
44,928 votes · R+2.3✓ Donni Steele (R)51.1%
Shadia Martini (D)48.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
46,997 votes · D+55.5✓ Ronnie Dean Peterson (D)77.7%
Martin A Church (R)22.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
55,555 two-party votes · D+2.0 · R+2.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.0%
Donald Trump (R)49.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
45,678 two-party votes · R+7.8 · R+10.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.1%
Also on the ballot in Michigan
Neighboring districts
HD-6Melanie MaceyMike Steger>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-19Samantha SteckloffKevin Hammer>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-20Noah ArbitS. David Sullivan98%Dem.89%Dem. HD-52Brendan LeddyMike Harris93%Rep.89%Rep. HD-53Brenda CarterMelissa Schultz>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-55Alex HawkinsMark TisdelD flipD flip70%Dem.73%Dem. HD-56Sharon MacDonellAshok Baddi>99%Dem.97%Dem. HD-66Ned ZimmerJosh Schriver>99%Rep.99%Rep.