Democratic
Michigan › Michigan House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan House District 46
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (63%).
Maino is favored to win: Maino wins in about 3 of every 5 simulations.
Maino (D)
63%
chance of winning
Schmaltz (R)
37%
- Average margin
- D+2.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (60%).
Maino is favored to win: Maino wins in 3 of every 5 simulations.
Maino (D)
60%
chance of winning
Schmaltz (R)
40%
- Average margin
- D+2.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Kathy Schmaltz
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.76 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.21 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.21 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 88,123
- People per km²
- 209
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 59%of adults
- White 75%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 12%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
41,414 votes · R+4.1✓ Kathy Schmaltz (R)52.1%
Daniel J Mahoney (D)47.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
42,023 two-party votes · R+2.3 · R+0.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.2%
Kamala Harris (D)48.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
30,935 votes · R+8.7✓ Kathy Schmaltz (R)54.3%
Maurice Imhoff (D)45.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
58,473 votes · R+24.0✓ John Reilly (R)62.0%
Jody Lamacchia (D)38.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
40,441 two-party votes · R+0.2 · R+4.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.1%
Joe Biden (D)49.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
33,686 two-party votes · R+1.9 · R+4.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.0%