Democratic
Michigan › Michigan House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan House District 96
Beson is clearly favored to win: Beson wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Girard (D)
16%
chance of winning
Beson (R)
84%
- Average margin
- R+7.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+3
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Beson is favored to win: Beson wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Girard (D)
24%
chance of winning
Beson (R)
76%
- Average margin
- R+6.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Timothy Beson
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.47 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -6.7 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -6.7 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 89,877
- People per km²
- 72
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 22%
- White, no degree
- 70%of adults
- White 88%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
51,609 votes · R+20.7✓ Timothy Beson (R)60.3%
Rudy M Howard Jr (D)39.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
52,628 two-party votes · R+12.2 · R+10.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.1%
Kamala Harris (D)43.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
42,254 votes · R+10.6✓ Timothy Beson (R)55.3%
Kim J Coonan (D)44.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
46,983 votes · R+9.2✓ Timothy Beson (R)54.6%
Brian K Elder (D)45.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
51,626 two-party votes · R+9.1 · R+13.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.5%
Joe Biden (D)45.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
43,551 two-party votes · R+10.8 · R+13.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.6%