Democratic
Michigan › Michigan House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan House District 22
McIntyre is clearly favored to win: McIntyre wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
McIntyre (D)
94%
chance of winning
Noce (R)
6%
- Average margin
- D+11.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
McIntyre is clearly favored to win: McIntyre wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
McIntyre (D)
82%
chance of winning
Noce (R)
18%
- Average margin
- D+8.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Casey Noce
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.39 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.9 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 82,657
- People per km²
- 770
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 55%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 85%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 3%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
60,110 votes · D+5.0✓ Matt Koleszar (D)52.5%
Adam A Stathakis (R)47.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
61,387 two-party votes · D+3.4 · D+4.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.7%
Donald Trump (R)48.3%
2022 Earlier district lines
51,771 votes · D+8.5✓ Matt Koleszar (D)54.2%
Cathryn Neracher (R)45.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
41,655 votes · D+19.8✓ Richard M Steenland (D)59.9%
Steven G Warner (R)40.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
62,548 two-party votes · D+4.4 · R+0.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.2%
Donald Trump (R)47.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
52,743 two-party votes · R+5.5 · R+7.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.2%
Also on the ballot in Michigan
Neighboring districts
HD-16Stephanie YoungBrian Duggan>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-17Laurie PohutskyKen Crider>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-18Kelly GarrettRyan Foster>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-21Kelly BreenRoss Barranco>99%Dem.96%Dem. HD-23Jason MorganMiriam Corvino>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-24Ranjeev PuriAllison Fuller>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-25Peter HerzbergDawn Udell>99%Dem.98%Dem.