DemocraticIncumbent
Kevin Hertel
- Experience
- State legislature
Michigan › Michigan State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan State Senate District 12
Hertel is favored to win: Hertel wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
Hertel (D)
78%
chance of winning
Goldwater (R)
22%
- Average margin
- D+5.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Flip risk: Democratic-held seat, a toss-up (59% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Hertel (D)
41%
chance of winning
Goldwater (R)
59%
- Average margin
- R+2.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
John Goldwater
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.18 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 255,287
- People per km²
- 322
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 53%of adults
- White 79%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 11%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
160,689 two-party votes · R+7.4 · R+5.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.7%
Kamala Harris (D)46.3%
2022 Earlier district lines
116,425 votes · D+3.4✓ Kevin Hertel (D)51.6%
Pamela Hornberger (R)48.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
158,915 two-party votes · R+4.4 · R+9.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.2%
Joe Biden (D)47.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
120,071 votes · D+0.8✓ Rosemary Bayer (D)49.4%
Michael D McCready (R)48.6%
Jeff Pittel (L)2.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
133,219 two-party votes · R+9.4 · R+11.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.3%
2014 Earlier district lines
87,184 votes · R+15.0✓ Jim Marleau (R)57.5%
Paul Secrest (D)42.5%